Why Creighton Will Win March Madness

Picking the right team in March Madness is never easy, and at times it seems impossible. Sure, sometimes the logical choice ends with a team like UNC who finished the season red hot, UConn who had an impeccable record, or even Purdue who have a 7’4” monster surrounded by efficient 3-point shooters. With that said, the winner often is found beyond these titans, and it is my firm belief that Creighton will break through this year.

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To start off with their overall structure, Creighton can score and defend at all three levels. They are the only team in college basketball with 3 different players all averaging over 17 points per game, and are accompanied by an array of 42%+ 3pt shooters (including Mason Miller, son of NBA legend Mike Miller). They have size, shooting, and an expected 1st round pick Baylor Scheierman to lead the way. Creighton has also proven that they can beat great teams with wins over Alabama, UConn by 19, and Marquette by 14.

Looking at their path to the championship, they match up well. After pushing past Akron and Oregon, they will face a Tennessee team that is reliant on one central scorer. As a team, Tennessee shoots a whopping 44% from the field. Creighton wins the depth game with ease, and Tennessee would need some heroics from their role players to win this game.

In the Elite 8, this would then probably land them against Purdue, who will likely be their greatest challenge. Purdue and Creighton are identical in terms of points against, but Purdue has a 3 ppg advantage in offensive production. Purdue is heavily reliant on paint points with one player, and a lower volume but high percentage shooting team around the perimeter. If you contain the paint to some extent (which is extremely difficult to do against 7’4” monster, Zach Edey), Purdue can turn into a very average streaky team. At 7’1”, Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the few people in college basketball with the potential to match up with Edey. Kalkbrenner averages the second most blocks per game in all of NCAA basketball, which is a massive advantage to have on a sweet sixteen team. In fact, the only other remaining team with someone in the top 15 for blocks is UConn. Lastly, Purdue ranks 137th in turnovers per game, a stunning 59 spots behind Creighton. Specifically in their losses due to unreliable ball handling in close games, we have seen Purdue collapse when they need to deviate from their initial game plan. Purdue will be Creighton’s toughest test as they are an excellent team, but If Zach Edey can’t play bully ball, we are in for a spectacular game.

In the Final Four we will likely see Houston, who have had some embarrassing showings on the offensive end this year (Ranked 128th), and quite frankly they can’t keep up with the scoring versatility of Creighton. Once they make it to the championship game, there are too many possible options to consider. With that said, assuming it ends up being UConn (the consensus best team in college basketball), their matchup a few weeks ago resulted in a Creighton victory by 19.

Overall, Creighton has not been talked about nearly enough for how talented and experienced they are as a team. It won’t be easy, and they definitely are not the favorites, but Creighton is set to cause some major madness this March.